US–Iran war boosts FG revenue by ₦5tn as fuel costs soar

Nigeria recorded an estimated ₦5.13 trillion oil revenue windfall in March and April 2026, driven largely by a surge in global crude prices triggered by the ongoing US–Iran conflict, even as rising fuel costs deepen hardship for citizens.

 

The 2026 budget is benchmarked at $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.8 million barrels, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400/$, translating to expected daily oil revenue of about ₦163.42 billion.

 

However, actual earnings significantly outperformed projections over the two-month period.

 

In March, with production averaging 1.55 million barrels per day and oil priced at $95.03 per barrel, daily revenue rose to about ₦201.80 billion, creating a surplus of ₦38.38 billion per day and a total windfall of ₦1.19 trillion for the month.

 

The gains intensified in April as both output and prices increased. With production estimated at 1.7 million barrels per day and oil averaging $127.05 per barrel, daily revenue climbed to about ₦294.84 billion—₦131.42 billion above the benchmark—resulting in a monthly windfall of ₦3.94 trillion.

 

Combined, both months yielded a total excess revenue of approximately ₦5.13 trillion, largely driven by price increases rather than production growth.

 

Despite the fiscal boost, Nigerians are facing rising fuel prices. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited raised crude prices for May-loading cargoes, with Bonny Light increasing by $6.13 per barrel and Forcados by $7.01.

 

Petrol prices have since surged, with Dangote Refinery raising its gantry price to ₦1,275 per litre, while pump prices now range between ₦1,350 and ₦1,400 nationwide.

 

The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, urged the government to channel part of the windfall into relief measures.

 

“The government can give some back to reduce the cost of transportation so that food will not be expensive,” he said, warning that petrol prices could exceed ₦1,500 per litre if the crisis persists.

 

Energy economist, Prof. Adeola Adenikinju, described the situation as a “two-edged sword,” noting that while government revenues are rising, citizens are bearing the burden through higher living costs.

 

“This is the time to support vulnerable Nigerians with targeted cash transfers,” he said, though he noted that the absence of a reliable social register remains a major challenge.

 

Industry stakeholders have also called for reforms in domestic crude pricing. The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria urged the government to abandon international benchmarks like Brent for local refineries, arguing that it inflates costs.

 

Similarly, economist Bismarck Rewane suggested that the government could supply crude to domestic refineries at controlled prices to stabilise fuel costs.

 

While the windfall offers short-term fiscal relief, analysts warn that Nigeria remains vulnerable to global oil price volatility, as the revenue gains are driven by external factors rather than sustained improvements in production.