No fewer than 84 per cent of Nigerians have indicated their willingness to participate in the 2027 general elections, but insecurity, declining confidence in electoral institutions and concerns over the resolution of election disputes may affect actual voter turnout, a new survey by Yiaga Africa has revealed.

The findings were contained in the organisation’s National Voting Intentions Survey 3.0, released in Abuja on Wednesday.

The survey, conducted in September 2026, covered 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Of the respondents, 2,066 were interviewed by telephone, while 404 were reached through face-to-face interviews in rural communities.

According to the report, although 84 per cent of respondents said they were likely to vote in 2027, only 47 per cent described themselves as “very likely” to participate.

The survey identified insecurity as the major threat to voter participation, with 82 per cent of respondents expressing concern that insecurity could affect the elections, while 61 per cent said fear of violence could discourage them from voting.

The report also revealed a decline in public confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, from 45 per cent in the first two rounds of the survey to 34 per cent in the latest edition.

However, 49 per cent of respondents expressed confidence in the use of BVAS for voter accreditation and IReV for transmission of election results.

Confidence in the judiciary was also low, with 63 per cent of respondents saying they had little or no confidence that electoral disputes would be resolved fairly. The figure rose to 81 per cent in the South-South.

Speaking on the findings, Chairman of Yiaga Africa’s Board of Trustees, Hussaini Abdu, described the survey as a wake-up call to political parties, electoral institutions, civil society organisations and other stakeholders.

He said the objective was not to pass judgment on the electorate or the electoral process, but to identify gaps that could be addressed before the 2027 elections.

Abdu urged political parties to play a greater role in mobilising voters, warning that the low turnout recorded in the 2023 elections remained a major concern for Nigeria’s democracy.

He noted that only about 27 per cent of registered voters participated in the 2023 presidential election despite the country having more than 100 million registered voters.

Also speaking, Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Safiya Bichi, said the survey showed that Nigerians had not lost interest in elections.

According to her, the major challenge was converting voters’ willingness to participate into actual turnout.

She identified fear, distrust and money as major factors standing between Nigerians and the ballot box.

Bichi described low voter turnout as a “conversion problem rather than an apathy problem”, saying the responsibility for addressing the situation rests largely with institutions responsible for security, electoral credibility and logistics.

Meanwhile, Executive Director of the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa, Ezenwa Nwagwu, advised INEC against making excessive promises ahead of the elections.

Nwagwu urged the commission to focus on building public confidence through effective performance, stressing that the electoral process was complex and could be undermined by various interests.

Among its recommendations, Yiaga Africa called on the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat-based national election security plan by November 2026, with priority attention to the North-East, North-West and North-Central regions.

The organisation also urged security agencies to focus on protecting voters in addition to election materials.

Yiaga further called on INEC to make a binding public commitment to the real-time uploading of polling-unit results on IReV and to publish and test its results-management protocol, particularly in the South-East and South-South.

The organisation also urged the judiciary to resolve pre-election disputes involving candidates before ballot papers are printed and publish clear timelines for the resolution of election petitions.

With the 2027 presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027, the survey highlights a critical challenge for Nigeria: many citizens say they want to vote, but whether they will actually reach the polling units will depend largely on security, trust and confidence in the electoral process.