Former Governor of Osun State and National Secretary of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Rauf Aregbesola, has cautioned the All Progressives Congress (APC) against placing excessive reliance on governors and political defections to secure electoral victories, insisting that the electorate, not office holders, ultimately determines election outcomes.
Aregbesola spoke on Tuesday in Abuja at the public presentation of The Loyalist, a memoir authored by the ADC’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi.
His remarks come amid a wave of defections to the ruling APC, including that of Kano State Governor, Abba Yusuf, who recently left the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Several governors elected on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have also crossed over to the APC in recent months.
They include Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers) and Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau).
Beyond the governors, a number of political heavyweights—ranging from National Assembly members and state lawmakers to former governors, ex-ministers and party chieftains—have equally defected to the ruling party.
Reacting to claims that the influx of defectors strengthens the APC’s electoral dominance, Aregbesola argued that available electoral data does not support the notion that governors can deliver votes against the will of the people.
According to him, the 2023 general election results in the South-West and South-East clearly demonstrate the limits of incumbency influence.
“In the South-West, where the APC controlled all states except one, the party’s best performance was about 55 per cent, with opposition parties sharing the remaining votes,” he said.
He noted that even in Lagos State, the APC presidential candidate lost his ward, local government and the state, despite the party’s firm grip on power.
“The South-East result is even more instructive,” Aregbesola added. “The APC recorded just 5.8 per cent of the total votes in that zone.”
The former Minister of Interior, who left the APC for the ADC last year, stressed that the growing defections should not be mistaken for popular support, urging the ruling party to focus instead on ensuring a credible electoral process ahead of the 2027 general election.
“What Nigerians require from any government conducting elections is a firm commitment to free, fair and transparent polls. Once that is guaranteed, we will truly see where the people stand,” he said.
He warned that democracy would be weakened if political actors continue to equate control of state machinery with electoral success, insisting that legitimacy can only flow from the ballot box.
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