There is palpable anxiety within the leadership of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Presidency over indications that former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, may join forces with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex–Anambra State Governor, Mr Peter Obi, ahead of the 2027 general election.

Atiku and Obi, presidential candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 poll, have already collapsed their political structures into the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in what observers describe as a renewed opposition realignment.

Credible sources said influential political actors within and outside the ADC are mounting pressure on Kwankwaso to align with Atiku and Obi to forge a common platform capable of mounting a serious challenge to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo was also said to be playing a behind-the-scenes role, holding consultations with the opposition figures on the possibility of a joint ticket on the ADC platform.

The two leaders have maintained warm relations with Obasanjo over the years, with the former president reportedly viewing them as political protégés. Kwankwaso contested the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

The vote fragmentation among the three opposition candidates in 2023 was widely believed to have aided Tinubu’s narrow victory.

Grim projections

Patriotic Insights News on Sunday gathered that internal analyses conducted by APC strategists project a difficult outing for the ruling party if the trio eventually unite for the 2027 contest.

The projections were based on a review of the combined votes secured by Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso in 2023 and the number of states where they defeated the APC candidate.

Official figures released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) show that Tinubu polled 8,794,726 votes; Atiku scored 6,984,520; Obi got 6,101,533; while Kwankwaso recorded 1,496,687 votes.

Together, the three opposition candidates amassed 14,582,740 votes—about 5.7 million more than Tinubu’s tally.

The statistics further revealed that Tinubu won 12 states, Atiku 12 states, Obi 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), while Kwankwaso claimed Kano State.

Tinubu prevailed in Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, Ondo, Jigawa, Benue, Niger, Kogi, Zamfara, Rivers and Borno.

Atiku triumphed in Osun, Yobe, Katsina, Adamawa, Taraba, Kaduna, Bayelsa, Sokoto, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Kebbi and Gombe.

Obi swept Enugu, Lagos, Nasarawa, Delta, Imo, Cross River, Ebonyi, Anambra, Abia, Edo, Plateau and the FCT.

An Abuja-based APC chieftain admitted that “the 2023 figures are not exactly comforting for the ruling party.”

Threat of united front

Insiders fear that a merger of the political bases of the three opposition heavyweights could significantly alter the electoral landscape in 2027, particularly in the Northeast, Northwest and Southeast where they command massive followership.

Analysts note that Atiku retains entrenched structures across the North, Obi enjoys overwhelming support among youths and urban voters in the South, while Kwankwaso still controls the powerful Kwankwasiyya Movement in Kano.

A senior APC member who led one of Tinubu’s campaign groups in 2023 said the party was closely monitoring developments.

“The real issue is not the individuals but the possibility of their supporters coming under one umbrella. If that happens, it could change the equation in many states,” he said, expressing confidence that personal ambitions may eventually frustrate the alliance.

Another top APC official dismissed claims of panic, insisting the party remained focused on governance.

“Opposition coalitions are not new. What matters is performance in office and we are delivering,” he said.

However, some party leaders privately admit that the situation mirrors the 2015 scenario when an opposition coalition unseated the PDP.

APC courts Kwankwaso

Multiple sources told Patriotic Insights News on Sunday that the APC has not ruled out courting Kwankwaso, although the former governor has reportedly tabled stringent conditions, including restructuring the party hierarchy in Kano.

As the opposition consultations intensify, the APC is said to be working on internal reconciliation and outreach to prevent defections that could strengthen the emerging alliance.

The unfolding permutations have already sparked debates on zoning, the performance of the Tinubu administration and the need for stronger party cohesion ahead of 2027.