The United Nations has warned that global average temperatures are expected to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with a new hottest year on record likely before 2031.

The warning was issued on Thursday by the World Meteorological Organisation, WMO, which said there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.

According to the agency, there is also a 75 per cent chance that the average global temperature for the 2026–2030 period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The WMO outlook comes as parts of western Europe experience extreme heat conditions, with Britain and France recording unusually high temperatures for May.

“Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years,” the agency said.

The organisation attributed part of the warming risk to the expected return of the El Niño weather phenomenon by the end of 2026.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.

The last El Niño event contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record, while 2024 became the hottest year globally at about 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average.

The WMO said annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

However, the agency noted that it remains highly unlikely that any single year within the next five years would exceed 2 degrees Celsius above the historical baseline.

The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius and preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The report also warned that Arctic temperatures are expected to rise significantly faster than the global average over the next five northern hemisphere winters.

According to the WMO, Arctic temperatures during the period could be about 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 average.

The report further projected wetter conditions in regions including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier conditions are expected across the Amazon region.

The climate update was compiled using forecasts from 13 international institutes and coordinated by the WMO and the United Kingdom’s Met Office.