Ukraine, Russia And US Set For Abu Dhabi Talks As Europe Fears Security Deal

Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States will meet in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for talks aimed at ending Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II, marking their first such meeting in more than nine months as another winter of war approaches.

European representatives will also attend the discussions amid growing concerns over US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of a deal with Moscow on European security ahead of the negotiations.

Trump has pushed for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war since returning to power, but previous diplomatic efforts have failed to produce a breakthrough. The peace process was also sidelined by the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Ukraine and several European countries fear Washington could pressure Kyiv into accepting a settlement that would amount to a de facto surrender, particularly as Trump appears to have shifted towards Moscow this year.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions and continued for 56 months, with the Kremlin showing no indication of abandoning its military objectives.

Ahead of the talks, Trump suggested Ukraine might have to surrender territory, saying: “They’re going to end up with a little bit different shape, Ukraine.”

Russia currently occupies large parts of Ukrainian territory. Although its forces have made gradual advances westwards, they have been unable to capture the entire Donetsk region.

Moscow has demanded that Kyiv surrender the remaining parts of the region under Ukrainian control, warning that it would otherwise continue its offensive.

Ukraine, which has resisted a significantly larger invading force for more than four and a half years at enormous human cost, has repeatedly rejected the demand.

Russia intensified its attacks ahead of the negotiations, carrying out one of its deadliest strikes in recent months. Ukrainian authorities said 55 people were killed in a frontline village while queuing for humanitarian assistance.

President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of escalating its attacks to influence the negotiations, describing the strikes as part of a strategy of “putting pressure on Ukraine’s position”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched the invasion in February 2022, has repeatedly rejected broader ceasefire proposals and direct talks with Zelensky.

Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and US special envoy Steve Witkoff are expected to bring representatives of the two warring countries together in Abu Dhabi for the first time since February, when negotiations were held in Geneva.

Several rounds of talks between Moscow and Kyiv have failed to end the nearly five-year conflict, leaving expectations for the latest meeting relatively low.

“We don’t have any particular expectations,” a senior Ukrainian official in Kyiv said.

Trump last week hinted at a “very big agreement” on the war that would “involve all of Europe”, raising concerns that Washington could work with Moscow to reshape Europe’s security arrangements.

Shortly before launching its invasion in 2022, Russia had issued an ultimatum to Western countries, demanding that NATO withdraw its forces from Eastern Europe.

Sergei Ryabkov, the diplomat who delivered that demand, will join Moscow’s delegation for the first time. The delegation will be led by Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Putin known for his nationalist views.

Kushner said on Monday that any peace settlement would require direct discussions between Russia and Europe on “the broader security arrangements that affect them”.

He added that the United States “recognises difficult decisions ahead”.

The comments have heightened concerns among European governments.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said on Monday that Europe had no need to establish a new security architecture.

“For Europe, it is clear: we do not need to establish a new security architecture for Europe,” he said.

He urged Moscow to abandon its “maximalist demands” and cautioned against turning the Abu Dhabi meeting into a “negotiation show”.

Zelensky has also warned against what he described as a possible “Yalta 2.0”, referring to the 1945 conference at which Western leaders and the Soviet Union agreed on arrangements that shaped post-war Europe.

Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said representatives from the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy, alongside officials from NATO and the European Union, would hold separate discussions with Kyiv’s delegation in Abu Dhabi.

However, the Kremlin, which has sought to exclude Europe from the negotiations, insisted that the main discussions would remain “trilateral”.

A recent ceasefire in Ukraine’s Kherson region has offered a limited basis for optimism. Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko described it as “a very positive precedent”, suggesting Kyiv would seek to achieve “de-escalation of the war through such local truces”.

Meanwhile, Kushner and Witkoff have faced criticism from opponents who accuse them of taking a soft position towards Moscow. US media reports have also suggested that the two American envoys are pursuing major business arrangements with Russia behind the scenes.

The Abu Dhabi talks are therefore expected to test not only the prospects for ending the war but also the willingness of the United States, Ukraine and European governments to agree on the security arrangements that could shape the continent’s future.