OSUN 2026: HOW POLITICAL REALIGNMENTS TIPPED THE SCALE FOR ADELEKE

 

The outcome of the August 15, 2026 Osun governorship election deserves to be examined beyond the headline figures. Governor Ademola Adeleke’s re-election was not simply a triumph of incumbency; it reflected a combination of grassroots mobilisation, political realignment, personal networks and the changing behaviour of voters.

Adeleke, contesting under the Accord Party, secured 511,067 votes, defeating the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, who polled 444,815 votes. ADC’s Najeem Salaam finished third with 17,180 votes. Adeleke won 19 of the 30 local government areas, giving him a decisive 66,252-vote margin.

Compared with 2022, the scale of Adeleke’s consolidation is striking. He increased his votes from 403,371 to 511,067, while his winning margin more than doubled. APC also increased its votes, but not sufficiently to match the governor’s expansion.

The Adeoti factor

Among the political realignments that shaped the contest was the support of former Osun State SSG, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, an Iwo-born politician with a political network extending beyond his home base.

Adeoti’s statewide relevance was demonstrated in the 2018 governorship election, when he contested under the Action Democratic Party (ADP) and secured more than 49,000 votes across the state.

His subsequent alignment with Adeleke therefore represented more than the addition of another prominent politician. It brought experienced grassroots operators, loyalists and political contacts into the governor’s coalition.

It would be difficult to quantify precisely how many votes were attributable to Adeoti. Yet, in an election decided by margins, the value of an established statewide network cannot be dismissed.

The reverse was the case for ADC. Adeoti’s departure deprived the party of political capacity it could have deployed against both Accord and APC. Its eventual 17,180 votes underscored the difficulty of building a viable third force without a sufficiently broad grassroots structure.

Omisore’s foot soldiers

Another significant development was the movement of some political foot soldiers associated with former Deputy Governor and former APC National Secretary, Senator Iyiola Omisore, from APC to Accord.

Omisore himself remained in APC, but the movement of some grassroots operators and loyalists weakened the party’s expected advantage in parts of the Ife axis while adding another layer to Adeleke’s coalition.

The reported defeat of APC by Accord at Omisore’s associated polling unit was symbolically important, although one polling unit cannot determine the strength of an entire political structure.

The broader lesson is that political influence is no longer automatically transferable. Voters and grassroots actors can make independent choices.

Ede remains Adeleke’s fortress

Adeleke’s traditional Ede base remained central to his victory.

In Ede North, he scored 35,427 votes against APC’s 10,283, while in Ede South he recorded 26,188 votes against 6,219.

The two LGAs alone gave Adeleke an advantage of almost 45,000 votes, representing a substantial share of his statewide winning margin.

But Adeleke did not depend solely on Ede. His ability to remain competitive across Osun Central and Osun East prevented APC from containing the election geographically.

That statewide spread was critical.

APC had structure, but Adeleke built the wider coalition

APC entered the election with significant advantages, including control of the Federal Government and an established political structure.

Oyebamiji also possessed administrative experience from his time as Commissioner for Finance under the Oyetola administration.

But the election showed the limits of political structure when it is not matched by a sufficiently broad electoral coalition.

The much-discussed federal factor also failed to become decisive. Adeleke maintained a working relationship with Abuja, making it difficult for APC to turn federal power into an overwhelming electoral argument.

For many voters, the election appeared to be less about which party controlled Abuja and more about the candidate they trusted to govern Osun.

The bigger lesson

The 2026 election demonstrates that Osun politics is increasingly driven by personalities, grassroots networks and political coalitions rather than party labels alone.

Adeleke survived his movement from PDP to Accord, retained his traditional base and expanded his support across the state.

Adeoti’s statewide network strengthened his coalition, while ADC’s loss of the former SSG weakened its own organisational capacity. At the same time, the movement of some Omisore-associated foot soldiers from APC to Accord further strengthened Adeleke’s grassroots reach.

The election also showed that political heavyweights cannot automatically transfer their influence to voters.

Ultimately, Adeleke’s combination of incumbency, personal popularity, Ede strength, statewide appeal and strategic alliances proved stronger than APC’s organisational advantages.

Adeleke won 511,067 votes, defeated APC by 66,252 votes and secured another four years in office.

For APC, the result demands introspection. For ADC, it calls for reconstruction. For Adeleke, the greater challenge now is to convert electoral confidence into effective governance.

The campaign is over. The real test of Adeleke’s second term has begun.