Nigeria’s economy recovering after painful reforms — NRS

The Nigeria Revenue Service has said the country’s economy is showing signs of recovery and stronger growth following a series of economic reforms implemented by the Bola Tinubu administration.

 

The NRS, in an internal report, said the economy had moved “decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing.”

 

It said the administration inherited major economic challenges, including an unsustainable fuel subsidy regime, an opaque foreign exchange system, poor performance in the oil sector and a narrow tax base.

 

According to the report, the reforms initially caused economic hardship but have since contributed to improvements in inflation, oil production, tax revenue, external reserves and the country’s balance of payments.

 

The NRS said oil production increased from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, representing 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.

 

It also reported that tax collections more than doubled from N12.3tn in 2023 to N27.1tn as of July 2026, attributing the increase to tax digitisation, new tax reform laws and measures to close revenue loopholes.

 

The report said economic growth rose from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2026, while foreign reserves increased from $3.99bn in 2023 to $51.9bn as of July 2026.

 

It added that the balance of payments moved from a $3.34bn deficit to a $2.38bn surplus in the first quarter of 2026, while Nigeria’s trade surplus rose from about N44.7bn to N7.55tn during the same period.

 

The revenue service also highlighted growth in capital importation, saying annual inflows increased from $3.9bn in 2023 to $23.22bn in 2025, while capital importation reached $10.37bn in the first quarter of 2026.

 

On the downstream petroleum sector, the NRS credited the naira-for-crude arrangement with Dangote Refinery and other local refineries with helping Nigeria become a net exporter of petroleum products.

 

It said more than 100,000 vehicles had been converted to compressed natural gas under the Federal Government’s CNG programme, with over $2bn in investments reportedly mobilised and more than 10,000 jobs created.

 

The report also said the Federal Government increased its agricultural allocation from N228.4bn in 2023 to N826.5bn in the 2025 budget, alongside measures including fertiliser distribution, agricultural mechanisation and the establishment of a N100bn National Agricultural Development Fund.

 

It said food prices had fallen by about 50 per cent by March 2026, while cautioning that sustained agricultural output would require several planting seasons for the impact of government policies to fully materialise.

 

On public debt, the NRS acknowledged that Nigeria’s debt stock increased from N87.4tn in 2023 to N159.28tn in late 2025.

 

However, it said the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and 32.3 per cent in 2026.

 

The NRS described the decline as the first sustained reduction in more than a decade, while debt servicing as a proportion of revenue fell from 68 per cent to an IMF-projected 53 per cent.