INSIDE KWARA APC POWER DEAL: How Tinubu’s Intervention Allegedly Produced Seriki–Mustapha Formula for 2027

A Fresh details have emerged on what appears to be a carefully negotiated political settlement within the Kwara State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC), ahead of the 2027 general elections, following weeks of intense behind-the-scenes consultations involving top political actors and the Presidency.

Multiple credible party sources with knowledge of the talks told Patriotic Insights News that President Bola Tinubu personally stepped into the escalating succession crisis in Kwara APC, leading to an arrangement that now places Ambassador Abdulfatah Yahaya Seriki-Gambari in pole position as the party’s governorship consensus candidate, while Senator Saliu Mustapha retains his Kwara Central senatorial ticket.

Weeks of tension, competing power blocs

Findings indicate that the Kwara APC had been deeply divided over succession plans, with two dominant blocs emerging around Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq and Senator Mustapha.

While early political calculations reportedly favoured Senator Mustapha as a strong contender for the governorship ticket—based on internal polling and assessments within some federal circles—opposition from the governor’s camp significantly altered the trajectory of negotiations.

Sources said intelligence and political evaluation reports presented at different levels of the Presidency had consistently ranked Mustapha among the APC’s most “electorally viable” figures in the state.

However, resistance from the state governor created what insiders described as a “high-stakes internal standoff” that threatened party cohesion ahead of 2027.

Presidential intervention and Lagos consultations

According to multiple sources, the crisis reached a decisive stage over the weekend when Governor AbdulRazaq reportedly travelled to Lagos for a closed-door meeting with President Tinubu and key party stakeholders.

During the consultations, the governor was said to have strongly pushed for Seriki-Gambari as his preferred successor, warning that excluding him from the succession structure could destabilise the party’s control in the state.

One source familiar with the discussions said the governor argued that Seriki-Gambari had long been part of the APC’s political structure in Kwara and had previously stepped down from ambition in 2018 in the interest of party unity.

Following the meeting, a compromise arrangement reportedly emerged.

The emerging deal

Under the new political understanding, Seriki-Gambari is expected to emerge as the APC governorship candidate for Kwara State, while Senator Mustapha retains his position as the party’s senatorial flag bearer for Kwara Central.

Party insiders described the arrangement as a “balancing formula” designed to prevent a full-scale rupture within the party ahead of the 2027 elections.

“The thinking was simple: accommodate the governor’s structure while also preserving Senator Mustapha’s electoral strength,” one senior party source said.

Another source added that Mustapha’s retention of the senatorial ticket was considered critical to the APC’s broader electoral strategy in Kwara Central, where he maintains significant grassroots support.

Unanswered questions and silent stakeholders

Despite the alleged agreement, there has been no official confirmation from the APC leadership in Kwara State or from the principal actors involved in the negotiations.

Attempts to reach Senator Mustapha’s media aides were inconclusive at the time of filing this report, as they said they were still verifying the development.

Within party circles, however, the development is already being interpreted as a major recalibration of power ahead of the 2027 elections—though questions remain over how the arrangement will hold among competing interests that have yet to publicly endorse it.

For now, the APC’s Kwara succession puzzle appears temporarily settled on paper—but insiders warn that the true test will come during the party primaries.