Osun 2026 and the Winds of Political Change as Oyebanji Stylishly Glides toward Victory- Soji Oni

By Soji Oni

Politics in Osun State has gradually moved beyond the ordinary contest for power. The coming gubernatorial election of August 15 is shaping up to become a referendum on governance, leadership style, political maturity, institutional stability, and the future direction of the State of Osun.

Across markets, motor parks, campuses, palaces, religious gatherings, artisan meetings, and even family compounds, one political discussion now dominates public discourse: should Osun continue under what many now describe as “Ijoba Idile Kan”; a family-controlled government or should the state return to a more structured, institution-driven and administratively coordinated leadership under the APC and Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO)?

From all indications across the state, the political atmosphere appears to be changing rapidly. What looked impossible a few months ago is gradually becoming a political reality. The momentum is shifting. The grassroots dynamics are changing. The confidence level of the APC is rising daily, while anxiety appears to be growing within the Accord camp.

Increasingly, many Osun citizens now openly argue that the 2026 election is no longer merely about party loyalty; rather, it is about rescuing Osun from what they perceive as excessive family interference in governance, lack of institutional coordination, and absence of deep administrative direction.

One major factor presently working strongly in favour of the APC is the growing perception that Governor Ademola Adeleke’s administration lacks independent political and administrative authority.

Among many citizens, there is a widening belief that critical decisions within government circles are heavily influenced by family members, particularly his elder sister and his brother. Whether fully accurate or exaggerated by political opponents, perception in politics is often stronger than reality.

Many Osun citizens now repeatedly ask: can a modern state like Osun continue to operate effectively under a structure where governance appears personalized around one family dynasty?

This growing narrative of “Ijoba Idile Kan” is becoming politically dangerous for the Accord Party because it resonates emotionally with many voters who desire broader inclusion, institutional governance, and independent leadership.

Another issue hurting the present administration politically is the question of intellectual engagement and executive communication. Leadership in modern democracy requires more than public excitement, dancing, or populist symbolism.

Citizens increasingly expect governors to demonstrate intellectual depth, policy understanding, media confidence, and command of governance issues. Many critics of the present administration frequently ask whether Governor Adeleke has ever engaged the media in a detailed, fluent, intellectually rigorous press discussion for one uninterrupted hour since becoming governor.

In an age where governance is heavily scrutinized, such issues matter greatly among civil servants, intellectuals, students, professionals, and opinion leaders.

In contrast, the APC is gradually projecting Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji as a more coordinated, mentally prepared, intellectually stable, and administratively grounded alternative.

AMBO is increasingly being marketed not merely as a politician but as a technocratic administrator with stronger policy understanding and institutional exposure. His supporters argue that Osun presently needs less entertainment and more strategic governance; less emotional populism and more developmental coordination; less family dominance and more institutional balance.

The APC structure across Osun State also remains one of the strongest political machines in the South-West. Despite losing the governorship in 2022, the party never truly collapsed structurally.

Its ward-to-ward organization, local government coordination, polling-unit penetration, and elite political networking remain formidable.

Unlike many parties that depend largely on temporary election-season mobilization, the APC in Osun possesses long-standing political roots across communities, religious groups, artisans, transport unions, civil service blocs, student circles, and traditional institutions.

This organizational strength is one of the greatest advantages working for Oyebamiji ahead of the election. Politics in Osun has always depended heavily on local mobilization, political memory, interpersonal loyalty, and grassroots coordination.

On these fronts, the APC appears increasingly prepared. The party’s internal meetings, strategic reconciliations, grassroots consultations, and renewed mobilization campaigns suggest a highly coordinated political movement already preparing seriously for battle.

Another major development favouring the APC is the increasing defection of influential political figures from the PDP into the APC. Another major development favouring the APC is the increasing defection of influential political figures from the PDP into the ruling party.

Of particular significance is the movement of prominent political office holders and grassroots power brokers whose influence extends across various constituencies in Osun State.

Among the most prominent defectors is Hon. Oluwole Oke, a long-serving member of the House of Representatives representing Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency. His political movement is widely regarded as a major boost to the APC because of his deep grassroots structure, long-standing political network, and influence across Ijesaland and Osun East Senatorial District.

Having spent many years in the National Assembly, his experience, visibility, and political reach make his alignment strategically important ahead of the governorship election.

Also noteworthy are several former PDP/Accord party chieftains, local government political coordinators, ward leaders, women mobilisers, youth coordinators, and former assembly aspirants who have either openly defected or quietly aligned with the APC structure across Osogbo, Ife, Iwo, Ila, Ijesa, and Ede political zones.

These movements continue to weaken the grassroots machinery of the Accord Party, while strengthening the APC’s local penetration.

At the National Assembly level, political observers have also pointed to the growing dissatisfaction among stakeholders over internal party management, alleged dominance of the Adeleke family structure, and concerns about the direction of governance in the state.

The gradual realignment of political actors around the APC has therefore become one of the defining developments shaping the build-up to the 2026 Osun governorship election.

Many of these defectors argue that they are joining the APC because they see it as better organised, more institutionally stable, and more capable of delivering sustainable governance and development to Osun State.

Their entry into the APC is expected to significantly strengthen the party’s electoral calculations, especially at the grassroots where elections are ultimately decided

In politics, defections are not merely symbolic; they are indicators of confidence, survival calculations, and future expectations. Many political heavyweights do not defect unless they sense changing momentum or declining confidence within their former camps. Across Osun, several notable politicians, local influencers, and grassroots mobilizers have quietly or openly aligned with the APC in recent months.

These defections are strategically important because politics in Osun is highly local. A political leader with strong influence in one local government or even one federal constituency can substantially alter voting patterns.

Many defectors are not ordinary politicians; they are community influencers with structures, loyal followers, ward coordinators, and financial networks. Their movement into the APC strengthens the perception that the political tide may be changing against the ruling Accord Party.

Also significant of note is the appointment of Hon. Oluwole Oke as the Director General of the Osun 2026 APC Campaign Council, this is widely seen by many political observers as a major strategic advantage for the APC ahead of the Osun governorship election. Hon. Oke is not just an ordinary politician; he is one of the most experienced grassroots political mobilisers in Osun State with decades of legislative experience, deep political connections, and a well-established support base that cuts across party, ethnic, religious and local government boundaries.

His political influence in Ijesaland, Osun East Senatorial District, and several other parts of the state gives the APC an added organisational strength that could significantly shape the electoral outcome. Having served multiple terms in the National Assembly, he understands electoral dynamics, coalition building, voter mobilisation, campaign coordination, and political negotiation at both the local and national levels.

Beyond his personal popularity, the choice of Hon. Wole Oke sends a strong political signal that the APC is deliberately building a broad-based coalition capable of attracting old political structures, undecided voters, and even dissatisfied members of the opposition.

His emergence as Director General is already strengthening party coordination from the ward level to the state level because of his reputation for grassroots engagement and accessibility to ordinary people. Many political stakeholders believe that his involvement will energise the APC campaign machinery, improve strategic planning, and create stronger confidence among party supporters who see him as a tested and experienced political figure with the capacity to unite different tendencies within the party.

Furthermore, his appointment has also weakened the opposition psychologically and structurally because Hon. Wole Oke was once considered one of the strongest political pillars within the opposition fold.

His movement and subsequent elevation within the APC campaign structure has and will continue to encourage more defections from the opposition, especially among political followers who still maintain loyalty to his leadership style and political ideology. In electoral politics, the value of a strong political structure cannot be underestimated, and many analysts believe that placing a politician of Hon.

Wole Oke’s stature at the head of the campaign council provides the APC with organisational depth, credibility, experience, and statewide political reach that could prove decisive during the election.

Furthermore, many civil servants and pensioners, traditionally influential voting blocs in Osun politics; are gradually reassessing their political preferences. While the Adeleke administration initially enjoyed enormous goodwill because of salary payments and pension interventions, economic hardship and rising public expectations have begun shifting political calculations.

Citizens increasingly ask deeper questions: beyond salary payments, where is the long-term developmental direction of the state? What major industrial transformation has occurred? What strategic investments are attracting sustainable economic growth? What major institutional reforms have strengthened governance?

The APC appears ready to capitalize on these concerns by presenting Oyebamiji as a candidate of continuity in planning, structure, and developmental coordination. Many within the APC continue to argue that the legacies and governance philosophy associated with former Governor Gboyega Oyetola represented a more stable administrative culture compared to the present system.

They maintain that Osun now requires a return to disciplined governance, institutional coordination, infrastructural planning, and policy consistency.

The argument that “Osun Needs Oyetola’s Governance Philosophy Again” is gradually becoming a powerful political slogan within APC circles. Supporters insist that Oyetola represented calm leadership, administrative maturity, and policy-focused governance rather than emotionally driven populism.

Many professionals, retirees, and technocrats reportedly feel more comfortable with the policy orientation associated with Oyetola’s era than with the current style of governance.

Another significant factor likely to influence the election is the role of prominent APC political gladiators across Osun State. The APC remains blessed with an unusually deep bench of experienced political actors, former office holders, influential legislators, grassroots mobilizers, and federal political connections.

The presence and influence of figures associated with the party across the various zones of the state provide strong electoral advantages.

From former governors to former legislators, former commissioners, influential local government politicians, youth mobilizers, and federal appointees, the APC possesses a vast network capable of coordinating electioneering activities effectively.

This broad political coalition gives the party significant advantages in mobilization, logistics, campaign financing, polling-unit management, voter education, and crisis management during elections.

Importantly too, the APC currently appears more aggressive in political messaging. The party has successfully weaponized several narratives against the Accord administration: family domination of governance, weak institutional control, over-personalization of power, inconsistent policy communication, and lack of visible long-term developmental direction.

Whether entirely fair or not, these narratives are gradually penetrating public consciousness.

Street politics, which often determines elections in Osun, is also evolving. In many communities, there is growing evidence that enthusiasm around the Adeleke administration is no longer as overwhelming as it was in 2022.

While the governor still retains a strong support base, especially among loyal Accord followers and beneficiaries of populist policies, political excitement appears to have reduced in several strategic locations. Economic hardship nationwide, rising expectations, and governance fatigue are gradually influencing voter attitudes.

Among young people too, political calculations are becoming more complex. While many youths initially embraced Adeleke’s unconventional style and populist appeal, there is increasing demand for governance sophistication, employment opportunities, digital economy expansion, industrial development, and structured economic planning.

The APC hopes to channel these aspirations into support for Oyebamiji by presenting him as a more technically prepared administrator capable of attracting broader economic opportunities.

Religious institutions and traditional rulers may also quietly shape the direction of the election. Osun politics has always involved subtle influence from influential clerics, royal fathers, community leaders, and opinion shapers.

Many stakeholders within these circles reportedly prefer political stability, institutional respect, and predictable governance structures. The APC is likely to benefit substantially if it succeeds in consolidating support within these influential networks.

One cannot also ignore federal political influence. In Nigerian politics, alignment with the ruling federal party often creates strategic advantages during elections. Access to federal political structures, national party coordination, strategic appointments, and institutional influence can significantly strengthen a governorship campaign. The APC in Osun appears determined to maximize this advantage fully.

However, beyond political structures and elite alliances, the APC must still recognize that elections are ultimately decided by the people. Osun voters are politically sophisticated, emotionally expressive, and highly sensitive to grassroots realities.

The APC cannot afford overconfidence. It must continue grassroots engagement, avoid internal crises, reconcile aggrieved members, and present a convincing people-centered manifesto that addresses unemployment, infrastructure, education, health care, rural development, workers’ welfare, and economic empowerment.

The party must also avoid the mistake of relying solely on criticism of Adeleke. Successful campaigns require not only exposing perceived weaknesses of opponents but also presenting credible alternatives.

The Oyebamiji project will succeed more convincingly if it offers hope, competence, unity, discipline, and strategic development rather than merely opposition rhetoric.

Nevertheless, one undeniable reality remains: the political battle for Osun has fully begun. The APC appears more organized, more motivated, and more strategically focused than many observers initially expected.

The growing street conversations, defections, elite recalculations, and grassroots movements suggest that the August 15 governorship election may become one of the most fiercely contested political battles in Osun’s recent history.

For many Osun citizens now, the election is gradually being framed as a choice between institutional governance and family-centered politics; between structured administration and emotional populism; between political coordination and perceived governance improvisation.

Whether this perception eventually translates into electoral victory for APC and Oyebamiji will depend on how effectively the party consolidates the changing political momentum presently visible across the state.

One thing, however, is increasingly clear: the political atmosphere in Osun is no longer the same. The wind is changing. The streets are talking. The calculations are shifting.

And unless there is a dramatic political turnaround, the August 15 election may produce one of the biggest political upsets in the recent history of Osun State politics, but above all Oyebamiji stand tall with better chance to massively win the election.

Oni is a Professor in the Department of Educational Foundations, Faculty of Education, and University of Lagos, where he teaches, Sociology of Education, Philosophy of Education and social pedagogy in Education