Nigeria’s equities market has staged a remarkable rally in recent months, defying the persistent weakness of the broader economy. This paradox highlights a widening disconnect between financial market optimism and the realities of the productive sectors—the true engine of sustainable growth.

While investors remain confident in listed firms, sectors that generate real value—manufacturing, agriculture, energy, and services—continue to underperform. These sectors drive innovation, create jobs, and enhance living standards, yet their contribution to national output remains modest.

For instance, in Q1 2024, manufacturing contributed only 9.98% of GDP, while agriculture accounted for 21.07%. Despite an overall GDP growth of 3.84% in Q4 2024, these figures underline Nigeria’s narrow productive base and limited structural transformation. Services and non-productive activities dominate, weakening job creation, industrial output, and export diversification. When the real economy underperforms, productivity stagnates, domestic capacity erodes, and dependence on imports rises—fueling inflation and currency instability.

Liquidity and Sentiment Driving Equities

The recent market surge has largely been powered by investor sentiment, liquidity flows, and strong corporate results in banking, telecommunications, and oil and gas. These firms continue posting robust profits despite macroeconomic headwinds, attracting local and foreign portfolio inflows.

High interest rates, designed to curb inflation, have made credit expensive for manufacturers while making equities and money-market instruments more attractive. As a result, capital increasingly flows toward financial assets rather than productive ventures.

While Nigeria’s real GDP growth between 2018 and 2024 indicates moderate recovery from the 2020 recession, expansion remains too weak to absorb labor market entrants or significantly boost production capacity. Financial sector buoyancy, though positive, cannot compensate for persistent weaknesses in the industrial base.

A Global Pattern of Divergence

Nigeria’s experience is not unique. Globally, stock markets often rise even when real economies falter. After the 2008 financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic, equity valuations surged despite sluggish output and high unemployment.

This trend underscores a broader phenomenon: financial markets can decouple from real-sector fundamentals, fueling asset bubbles and widening inequality. In Nigeria, the stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio rose to 28.97% in 2024, well above historical averages of 10–15%. About 15 firms account for over 85% of total market capitalization, highlighting vulnerability to shocks.

The Cost of Neglecting the Real Economy

An economy driven primarily by financial markets risks widening inequality and deepening volatility. Employment creation remains weak, industrial output stagnant, and inclusive growth elusive. History shows that excessive financialization—as seen in Japan in the 1990s or the U.S. pre-2008—leads to long-term stagnation once speculative bubbles burst.

Nigeria must re-anchor its growth strategy around real-sector revitalization. Expanding access to affordable credit for manufacturers and SMEs, improving infrastructure (especially energy and logistics), and offering targeted fiscal incentives for value addition and export diversification are critical. Enhancing ease of doing business, reducing regulatory bottlenecks, and promoting innovation-led industrialization will also strengthen competitiveness.

Beyond Market Euphoria

The soaring stock market should not distract from the urgency of rebuilding Nigeria’s productive base. Financial markets may generate short-term wealth, but lasting prosperity depends on a vibrant real economy that creates jobs, goods, and opportunities for households and industries alike.

If current trends persist, the gap between market performance and economic reality could widen, deepening inequality and exposing the nation to systemic risk. True growth must reflect not just in market indices, but in factories, farms, and families where real value is created.