Failed Rain Forecast Threatens Food Security in Kwara Communities

Farmers in Asa Local Government Area of Kwara State have raised alarm over the failure of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency’s (NiMet) 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), blaming the inaccurate forecast for widespread crop losses this season.

Speaking in Ilorin on Wednesday, farmers said they had relied heavily on NiMet’s predictions for planting decisions. The agency had projected rainfall in Asa to run from May 7 to November 18, providing nearly 195 days suitable for cultivation. In reality, rainfall ceased abruptly in June, disappeared entirely in July, and occurred only sporadically in August, resuming consistently only in September.

Abdulrazaq Hamzat, convener of the pro-democracy and civic advocacy group Kwara Must Change (KMC), described the forecasting failure as “a huge disaster” with serious implications for rural livelihoods, food security, and farmer confidence.

“Crops across Asa were destroyed, wiping out investments in land preparation, seedlings, and fertilizers. Many farmers are now counting losses from what they call ‘the worst season in living memory,’” Hamzat said.

He urged the Kwara State Government to provide immediate relief packages for affected farmers and recommended the establishment of localized weather monitoring systems to complement national forecasts.

“This is a wake-up call. If national forecasts continue to fail, farmers may either abandon official predictions or stop farming altogether. Both outcomes are disastrous for the economy and food security,” Hamzat warned.

KMC has also called on NiMet and the Federal Government to provide explanations for the failure and implement corrective measures to prevent similar crises in the future.