Performance, Not Sentiment: Why Osun 2026 Could Surprise Everyone

By Oluwatosin Babatunde

As Osun inches toward the 2026 governorship election, the two dominant parties the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are both struggling with weaknesses that could shape the outcome.

The APC, once the natural ruling party in Osun, is today a divided house, stage-managing unity it does not possess. The party has lost touch with its grassroots base. The communities that once stood firmly behind the broom now feel abandoned. Instead of rebuilding, APC leaders are consumed by zoning debates, supremacy battles, and factional rivalries. What remains is a shell of a party projecting strength but lacking real connection with voters.

Former governor and current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola, remains the undisputed leader of Osun APC. His body language suggests he has indirectly put his weight behind Bolaji Oyebamiji, the immediate past Commissioner for Finance. By handing over his campaign office and political structure to Oyebamiji, Oyetola has signaled where his preference lies.

But this move has unsettled many within the APC family. Party elders, some aspirants from Osun East and Central, and even loyalists of President Bola Tinubu in the state feel sidelined. They see Oyetola’s quiet endorsement of Oyebamiji as a premature imposition that narrows the field. Instead of uniting the party, the gesture has deepened suspicion, widened cracks, and left grassroots supporters wondering if APC will ever return to its old culture of inclusivity and open contest.

On the other side, Governor Ademola Adeleke’s PDP, though buoyed by his 2022 victory, is no longer invincible. Adeleke has already lost his once-total bloc support across Osun West. What remains solid in his column is the Ede Federal Constituency Ede North, Ede South, and Egbedore his family’s political fortress. But even there, Ejigbo Local Government has slipped out of his firm grip. His wider popularity across the state is also waning, with accusations of non-inclusivity and exclusionary governance weakening the PDP’s base.

To be fair, Adeleke has scored points in prompt payment of salaries and pensions, as well as in visible infrastructure projects across the state. These have earned him goodwill in some quarters. However, his administration has fared poorly in critical sectors like agriculture, education, and health.

In education, public schools across Osun remain underfunded and overstretched. Teachers complain of poor motivation, dilapidated classrooms, and lack of learning materials. The government’s failure to roll out a clear policy for improving tertiary institutions has left universities and polytechnics in the state struggling with underfunding and directionless reforms.

In agriculture, once the backbone of Osun’s economy, little has been done to modernize farm settlements, provide access to credit, or support young farmers. Despite promises of agro-revolution, most initiatives remain on paper, leaving the state dependent on food supplies from other regions. For a largely agrarian state, this is a missed opportunity to create jobs and drive food security.

In health and job creation, the story is not much different. Outside urban centers, many primary healthcare facilities remain poorly staffed and ill-equipped. Meanwhile, the rate of youth unemployment is still high, with government empowerment programs seen as tokenistic rather than transformative.

To compound matters, the deepening crisis rocking PDP at the national level could further erode Adeleke’s chances, as the party struggles with internal distrust, factional battles, and waning public confidence ahead of 2027.

And then there is the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a party many dismiss as insignificant. But in politics, underestimation is dangerous. If ADC presents a governorship candidate with wide acceptability and grassroots appeal, it could emerge as a dark horse pulling a surprise result in a state where the two leading parties are both limping.

Osun politics is therefore wide open. APC is fractured, with Oyetola’s tilt toward Oyebamiji already breeding discontent. PDP is diminishing under Adeleke’s narrowing influence, further weighed down by its national crisis and governance gaps in key sectors. ADC, if strategic and bold, could turn from an underdog to a contender.

Politics, like chess, punishes complacency. For Osun 2026, no party has an assured victory, and the electorate tired of excuses and empty promises may decide that this time, performance, not sentiment, will be the ultimate decider.