Energy experts have criticised the World Bank’s recommendation for Nigeria to deepen fuel importation and fully liberalise its downstream petroleum sector, warning that such advice could undermine the country’s drive for energy independence.

An energy economist, Prof. Ken Ife, said the proposal was ill-timed and counterproductive, arguing that it contradicts Nigeria’s strategic focus on local refining and value addition.

“You cannot come to a country that is struggling, and which has just developed a vision of economic self-reliance and then advise it to reverse course and return to fuel importation,” Ife said during a televised interview. “That kind of recommendation undermines everything Nigeria is trying to achieve.”

He noted that the suggestion also conflicts with the Petroleum Industry Act, which prioritises domestic crude supply to local refineries.

“The law is very clear. Domestic refining must come first. Advising Nigeria to abandon that path is not just against government policy; it is a clear violation of the PIA,” he added.

Ife warned that a return to large-scale fuel importation could expose Nigeria to global supply shocks, worsen foreign exchange pressures, and discourage investments in local refining capacity.

“We are on track to build refining capacity that will exceed domestic demand and position Nigeria as an energy exporter. How can anyone credibly suggest that we abandon this progress?” he queried.

Another energy expert, Kelvin Emmanuel, also faulted the World Bank’s position, describing it as disconnected from current market realities.

He claimed the institution had withdrawn the controversial Nigeria Development Update from its website, although this could not be independently verified.

“The World Bank has retracted the report… the document has been taken down,” Emmanuel said.

He dismissed claims that imported fuel could be cheaper than locally refined products, citing high global crude prices and logistics costs.

“There is no marketer today that can land petrol into Nigeria at less than ₦1,759 per litre when you factor in freight, insurance and supply chain risks,” he said.

Emmanuel explained that global oil price dynamics, particularly tensions in the Middle East, have driven up costs, making import-dependent strategies less viable.

“The only way imported petrol can appear cheaper is if standards are compromised, which historically has been the case,” he added.

On domestic pricing, he argued that petrol remains relatively cheaper in Nigeria compared to neighbouring countries, despite rising costs.

“There is nowhere in the region where petrol is sold as cheaply as it is in Nigeria,” he said.

The experts maintained that Nigeria’s fuel pricing challenges are largely tied to inconsistencies in enforcing domestic supply frameworks rather than resource limitations.

“If local refiners receive crude supply as stipulated by law, prices will stabilise and volatility will reduce,” Emmanuel said.

He also cautioned against expanding social safety nets through borrowing, stressing that such measures could worsen fiscal pressures.

“Social safety nets are important, but you do not borrow money to share. Borrowing is meant for capital projects and human development, not consumption,” he said.

The World Bank had, in its latest update on Nigeria’s economy, recommended reforms in the downstream sector, including increased liberalisation and reliance on imports — a position that has continued to generate debate among industry stakeholders.