A civil society organisation, Yiaga Africa, has raised concerns over public confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), revealing that only 45 per cent of Nigerians trust the electoral body to conduct credible elections ahead of the 2027 general polls.

The organisation disclosed this in its National Voting Intentions Survey (Round 1) released on Thursday.

According to Yiaga Africa, the survey was conducted through telephone interviews between December 1 and 5, 2025, with 1,500 respondents drawn from all 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The poll, it said, has a 95 per cent confidence level and a margin of error of ±4.26 per cent.

Despite the low level of trust in INEC, the report indicated a strong willingness among Nigerians to participate in the 2027 elections, as 77 per cent of respondents said they were likely or very likely to vote.

However, Yiaga Africa warned that the enthusiasm could be undermined by rising insecurity and fears of electoral violence.

“This tension between democratic aspiration and security apprehension defines the current electoral environment. The challenge for 2027 is ensuring that the 77 per cent who want to vote can do so safely and with confidence in the process,” the organisation stated.

Regional analysis of the survey showed that voting intention was highest in the North-West (67 per cent) and North-East (45 per cent), while the South-South (29 per cent) and South-East (25 per cent) recorded the lowest levels of enthusiasm.

Ironically, Yiaga Africa noted that regions with higher voting intentions also expressed significant security concerns and fears of electoral violence.

The survey identified security concerns (21 per cent), quality of candidates (21 per cent), and prevailing economic conditions (17 per cent) as the major factors influencing voter participation.

Yiaga Africa said the findings place greater responsibility on political parties to conduct transparent and credible nomination processes ahead of the elections.

“Although 76 per cent of Nigerians believe their votes can influence election outcomes, only 45 per cent express confidence in INEC’s ability to conduct credible elections,” the report added.

The organisation further observed that distrust in INEC is more pronounced in the southern parts of the country, particularly the South-South and South-East, while confidence remains relatively higher in the North.

Yiaga Africa urged security agencies to deploy comprehensive election security frameworks, especially in high-risk areas, and called on INEC to strengthen the integrity of the voter register and intensify confidence-building measures in regions with low trust.